Turning California into a Swing State
by DaveOinSF, Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 03:03:15 PM EST
Supporters of a 2008 Obama candidacy credit his ability to "change the map". No more traditional patterns of Red and Blue as we've seen since 1992, but an inversion of the electoral college from sea to shining sea. While there are plenty of blue states that Obama could lose were he the nominee (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts), the most devastating blow to his candidacy could come in California. Obama could win Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, Montana, Louisiana, North Carolina and Virginia and every Kerry state but California, and he would still lose the presidency. And against McCain, it's a very real possibility.
In 2004, Kerry carried California 54-44. CNN exit polls at the time showed
Kerry losing whites, but carrying blacks 4:1 and Hispanics, Asians and "Other" 2:1.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, John McCain clobbered his democratic rival. Among whites,
McCain got about 27% of the
Kerry voters, but among Latinos, McCain did substantially better, winning about 41% of the Kerry voters. McCain's crossover appeal among Latinos was thus about 1.5 times his crossover appeal among whites. Over in Illinois, where
Kerry was clobbering Bush,
Obama was getting about 40% of the white Bush voters, but only about 25% of the Latino Bush voters. Thus, his crossover appeal among Latinos was only about 60% of his crossover appeal among whites. Taking the Arizona and Illinois results together, it would appear that McCain has about 2.5 times the crossover appeal among Latinos as does Obama.
In 2008 in California, McCain's job will be to win over those Kerry voters. Based on the 2004 Arizona and Illinois results, if McCain wins 5% of the white 2004 Kerry voters, he could potentially win 12.5% of the Latino 2004 Kerry voters. Let's be charitable and say the rate is somewhat less than that, and he only wins 10% of those 2004 Latino voters.
Meanwhile, in 2006, Arnold
Schwarzeneggar clobbered Phil Angelides. Among the most fascinating demographic trends was the extent to which Schwarzeneggar captured the Asian-American vote. Schwarzeneggar captured almost 45% of the Asian 2004 Kerry voters, winning 62% of this demographic. Lost in the publicity about Obama's failures to capture the Latino vote in California on Super Tuesday was his even more crushing and overwhelming defeat among Asian-American voters.
If McCain captures 5% of the white Kerry vote, you'd see McCain winning among whites 56-44 (Bush won 51-47). This would translate into a 58-42 win for Obama among Latinos, which is slightly less than Angelides' 56-39 victory in 2006 and still better than the 56-44
nationwide breakdown for Kerry in 2004. Using the 2006 gubernatorial election as a guide, McCain could conceivably win Asian-Americans 57-43, a result that is still worse than Schwarzeneggar's performance. Let's assume that Kerry's 81-18 victory among Blacks becomes a 90-10 triumph. Let "Other" break 50-50, about midway between the 2004 and 2006 California results.
The 2008 California result will then come down to turnout. Let's say turnout among Whites is the 67%, one point less than 2006, with turnout among blacks increasing from 5% to 7% and decreasing among Latinos from 19% to 18% and among Asians from 6% to 5%. Other remains at 3%.
Where does this bring us? A 50-50 split with a slight edge to McCain. Turning California from safe blue into a swing state is the price to pay for an Obama nomination. A loss would be even more disastrous.
Tags: California, 2008 Election (all tags)
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