MyDD :: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37

PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37

by DaveOinSF, Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:00:55 AM EST

20-point lead for Hillary in the latest poll of the Keystone state. Poll was taken April 11-13, so it does include a good chunk of time post-"Cling to guns and religion".

Hillary Clinton 57
Barack Obama 37
Undecided 4
Someone Else 2

It's ARG, so in truth it's proabably less than that. But it is significant movement from a 45-45 tie in their previous poll. Good news for the Democratic Party and especially Hillary Clinton.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/ padem8-705.html

Tags: poll, Pennsylvania, 2008 primary (all tags)

Permalink :: 46 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (2.00 / 0)

You should change the title to make it clear it's an ARG poll.

by Mostly on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:02:49 AM EST

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (2.00 / 1)

This helps reset expectations for PA. Last week there was foolish talk that Obama could win the state.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:05:28 AM EST

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (2.00 / 2)

Good point. Look's like ARG is actually good for something.

by Mostly on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:06:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee

by TruthMatters on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:08:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

yes it helps reset expectations BUT

Obama actually has to do well in the state.

I just hope he can get to within 5.

Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee

by TruthMatters on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:08:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

I always doubted that was possible. He said some weeks ago that he wanted to get within ten.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:13:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

This is right in line with the SurveryUSA poll from last week, which had her up for 18. Seems there's a trend:

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/ 04/08/pennsylvania-clinton-18-points-ahe ad-of-obama/

by Susie from Philly on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:53:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

good news, but it is ARG now.... (2.00 / 1)

though if they are using the same sample it is still a huge shift, that said, I'll wait on SurveyUSA, PPP, etc to elaborate.

But I do think this will have an impact, people i talk to (i dont live in a small town though) think it was a very bad statement, especially they cling to religion/gun part, this thing should be called Cling-Gate, not bitter, the bitter part isnt the worst of it.

DEMOCRATIC 08!

by rigsoHC on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:06:09 AM EST

Re: good news, but it is ARG now.... (2.00 / 0)

So is HRC going to print up new stickers?

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:07:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: good news, but it is ARG now.... (none / 0)

Unless the pollster was doing panel polling, which is virtually never done outside of academic survey research, it's NOT the same sample. This is a separate group of people.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:34:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (2.00 / 0)

ARG!? HAhaha

by mecarr on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:08:18 AM EST

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (2.00 / 0)

i concurr:

ARG!? HAhaha

--++++Stay Gold, Ponyboy!++++--

by amde on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:10:58 AM EST

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

Even though I welcome the news, I just don't trust ARG or Rasmussen. So, I reject this.

by American1989 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:11:00 AM EST

i'm waiting (none / 0)

for the next Susa poll.

But i would bet other polls start showing similar trends

vote blue in 2008

by sepulvedaj3 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:13:27 AM EST

Re: i'm waiting (2.00 / 1)

Most other recent polls have shown a trend toward Hillary, or at least a breaking of OBama's moment and this was before the recent kerfuffle. I would like to see more by SUSA, Muhlenberg and Quinnipiac though.

by Mayor McCheese on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:19:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (2.00 / 0)

HAHA, they have a 20 point swing in a week? That is dead hooker range

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:13:36 AM EST

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

The big thing in the ARG poll was that it was all the ads Obama is running that is making them go to Hillary. LOL. ARG has a real big problem with their polling if this is what they came up with on why voters were going to Hillary. It makes you wonder who ARG really polled. At least if Obama loses bad in PA the story will be about Obama bein too elitist and not about how PA voter were racist. We now find out that PA voters are just biased against supposed elitists and not against AAs. It is really funny when the Clintons have made $109 million since they left the WH, and McCain owns 8 houses. Who are really the elitist???

by Spanky on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:14:44 AM EST

Having money isn't the same as expressing (2.00 / 1)

contempt for core values of most Americans.

by internetstar on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:17:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Having money isn't the same as expressing (none / 0)

You mean like honesty? Seems that Tuzla was pretty contemptuous of core American values more so than pointing out that people turn to their faith and tradition in times of strife.

by elrod on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:35:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (2.00 / 1)

Having money doesn't make you an elitist. It's your attitude.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:18:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (2.00 / 1)

Bingo. Roosevelt, the Kennedys, Jay Rockefeller, John Kerry and many other Dems have had big, big bucks yet have also cared about those who are less fortunate than they are, a group which includes just about everybody.

by Mayor McCheese on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:21:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hot Damn! (none / 0)

by internetstar on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:16:13 AM EST

Re: Hot Damn! (none / 0)

Yeah. See the Electoral College maps on the front page? The ones where somebody (gee, who could that be?) had to give McCain New York to make it look like Obama is almost as weak as Clinton? And where Clinton needs Florida (where she's currently tied with McCain) just to lose to McCain by only fifty Electoral votes?

Hot Damn!

by BlueinColorado on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 12:07:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

Anything less thana 20 point win for her spells disaster! She is going to crush him in PA!

by Hope Monger 2008 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:17:14 AM EST

I rarely pray, but (none / 0)

this is one of those rare times.

by internetstar on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:19:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

I don't trust PPP, ARG, Zogby, or Ras, so the meaning isn't that great objectively--but everyone was so gleeful to see Hillary falling in disreputable polls so if this helps reset that narrative, I'm all for it.

2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.

by BPK80 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:17:16 AM EST

won't be close (2.00 / 1)

PA never was never going to be close for Obama.

But on the heels of his major blunder, if the talking heads spin this as a big loss for him, he may be in trouble.

I also think this guarantees a victory for HRC in Indiana.

Not sure how this plays out in SD or MT, but it could have an affect.

by njsketch on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:18:13 AM EST

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

Does anyone know how to add javascript or html to a post?

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:20:35 AM EST

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

ARG is worthless. Their last poll showing HRC and BHO tied was worthless and so is this one.

Obama is down by 10-12 points in all likelihood.

by CaptMorgan on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:24:58 AM EST

I Agree (none / 0)

Most likely Clinton is ahead by 10-12 points. Wednesday's debate may be important on whether Clinton will be able to crush Obama in Pennslyvania.

Dizzy Zzyzzy

by Zzyzzy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 01:19:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

ARG also predicted (none / 0)

an 18-point Clinton win in Iowa...

"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis

by MBNYC on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:26:55 AM EST

Re: ARG also predicted (2.00 / 1)

No they didn't. They were off, as they often are, but they didn't predict an 18 point CLinton win in Iowa. They had their last poll at 9.http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Dem-Pres-P rimary.php

by Mayor McCheese on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:34:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ah. (none / 0)

I stand corrected on numbers, but not principle :-)

"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis

by MBNYC on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 12:29:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

internals: 23% say overexposure to obama ads making them favour clinton. LMAO

messiah that Godbama!

by zane on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:29:49 AM EST

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

I bet those are core Clinton supporters. If I saw an ad for Clinton it'd turn me off because I don't like her. It's a useless metric. They should have asked if the SF comments made a difference.

by elrod on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:36:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

i live in Fl and I can tell you when Obama made his 'national ad buy' and I saw those ads of him on CNN here like one every 45mins, it turned me off and I would either turn the channel or tune it out.

Now, I'm an ardent Hill supporter so I may not be the best one to offer an opinion on this but I do find it funny that this was expressed in the poll.

Of course, I do believe that some people will be disgusted as he is spending an unprecented $2.2mil a wk in PA which is more than Kerry, Gov. Rendell and Casey ever spent.

I saw a package by a Pittsburg tv station showing a protest infront of Obama's office with signs saying 'I'm not bitter'.

too funny. He had better hope that this doesn't catch wind.

by shark on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:44:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

by Mayor McCheese on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:34:37 AM EST

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

I am not a fan of ARg polls but this may be more indication of the trend swinging back to Hillary in a big way.

There is no way that I believe that she is up 20 but I do believe that she has the potential to win PA by 12-14 pts which will be huge.

Right wing radio is killing him on this right now and when O'reilly and Hannity get a whole of this for their 1pm and 3pm talk shows and their 8pm and 9pm t v shows, he will get clobbered again.

Donate
www.hillaryclinton.com

by shark on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:41:48 AM EST

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

20 points, babee!!

by johnnygunn on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:47:53 AM EST

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

Susquehanna Polling, based in Harrisburg, just released a poll at 37-0 40-H... two weeks ago they had it 45/31 Clinton.

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:58:16 AM EST

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

Do you know over what days that poll was conducted?

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 12:13:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

6-10th...neither of these polls picked up bitter-gate

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 12:23:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

What's striking is the amount of undecided voters; most polls last week had the undecideds in double digits; now, it's looking like people are making up their minds.

by yogi41 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 12:05:09 PM EST

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

I'll waitn until Wednesday of Thursday to see the effect, if any, last Friday's story had. Obama had a bad end of the week, but Clinton didn't have a great one either.

20 points is a bit much, but maybe it'll get the Obama people working harder. I'd like to see him pull it within 5.

by NewOaklandDem on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 12:08:44 PM EST

Re: PA Poll: Hillary 57, Obama 37 (none / 0)

SUSA had C56-O38 a week ago; I am assuming SUSA will get even better results today than!

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 01:23:48 PM EST

ARGGGG!!! (none / 0)

by Skaje on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:21:28 PM EST

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