MyDD :: SUSA NC poll is up

SUSA NC poll is up

by DaveOinSF, Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:30:24 PM EST

I know there's already been discussion of the latest SUSA poll of North Carolina showing Obama with 49% and Hillary with 44%. Discussion of it was based on television reports, I believe. Well the poll with all the crosstabs is now available at the SUSA website.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=d4d1bc7e-32d4-438e-8143-75c8b2 5b3435

In the past, SUSA has failed to capture Obama's share of teh African American vote realistically. On election day, he wins 90-10, but in previous SUSA polls, it's usually shown up as 80-20 or thereabouts. This one has the black vote at 87-11, pretty darn close to what we're likely to see on election day. It also projects 33% of the electorate to be African American.

Hillary is up 31 points among whites (61-30). Interestingly, 6% support "Other" and 3% are Undecided. I'm thinking that 6% "Other" are actually nostalgic Edwards supporters who are very likely to support Hillary.

Since the white and black vote only add up to 94%, you can assume 6% is Hispanic/Asian/Native American/Mixed race/etc. In order to arrive at 49-44 overall result, you'd have to assume that that 6% is going 2:1 for Hillary.

Some fun with numbers:

Use 61-33-6 racial breakdown. Assume 90-10 among Blacks for Obama and 67-33 for Hillary among "Other". For Hillary to win North Carolina, the White Vote would need to be 70-30. If Hillary gets ALL the Edwards supporters and undecideds among white voters, she'd JUST make it.

Conversely, if she maintains a 2:1 edge among whites and "Other", she'd need the black vote to split 16-84.

Can she do it? It's doubtful, but it's almost doable.

Tags: Survey USA, polls, electoral college, Election 2008, North Carolina (all tags)

Permalink :: 36 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

This race really depends on African-American turnout and how much whites vote for Clinton. I still think it will be Obama by double digits, but lets wait and see.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:37:18 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (2.00 / 1)

SUSA's generally been pretty good at predicting turnout with respect to racial demographics.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:45:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

Well, if it is 67/33, and whites vote for Clinton like they did in PA, about 63%, then it is a single digit race, Obama by 8 points. Still, I think this will be a double digit win for Obama and a status-quo race afterwards.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:56:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (2.00 / 1)

Nice analysis. Thanks. And thanks for the link to the crosstabs -- they are the most interesting part of any poll.

by LakersFan on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:52:37 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (2.00 / 1)

I think they are under-counting AA turn-out.
I think Obama will win NC by double digits.

TexasDarlin blog

by TexasDarlin on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:55:05 PM EST

Me too. (2.00 / 1)

If anyone thinks otherwise, they are just being silly. Doesn't mean I won't be making phone calls into NC to help keep it close.

by linc on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:10:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (2.00 / 2)

My gut says that more AAs are going to vote for Hillary. Some of my AA friends have started to realize that Obama wont win the general. They want to defeat McCain as true Democrats.

by Sandeep on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:56:41 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

I was thinking about that. Would some African-Americans feel betrayed by Obama's denunciation of Wright and either not vote or vote for Clinton. I don't think it will happen, but I am curious.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:59:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (2.00 / 1)

I've already gone out on a limb saying Hispanic/Asian/Other will go 4:1 for Hillary in NC. At this point Latino is going 9:1 for Hillary in Kentucky but NC is not Kentucky.

Thus if Hillary maintains 67% to 33% among whites and Barack maintains 87% to 13% among AA then Hillary can still pull off the win. . . just my opinion.

I'm of the belief that with the notariety of RNC's NC Rev. Wright ads, and the Easley endorsement, (Easley always ran strong among AA here) that frankly AA will not meet expectations for Obama making it easier for Hillary to pull out the upset.

by wasanyonehurt on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:10:37 PM EST

It will be impossible to confirm your prediction (none / 0)

Hispanic/Asian/Other is a maximum of ~5% of the vote. So even if they survey 2500 people for an exit poll (in comparison, they did 2217 in PA), that leaves the margin of error at 99% confidence level to be 1.29/sqrt(2500*0.05) = 11.5%. So the exit polls could show her winning them 75-25 when the actual results are 64-36.

Same thing with Kentucky, where SUSA's sample is 555 voters and Latinos and Other are only 1% each! You're jumping to conclusions from a sample of only 5-6 people! At that size, the margin of error is a staggering 57%!

by MILiberal on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 11:42:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

all recent polling out of NC has Obama between 49-52%. In PA, TX, OH, NH, etc, he received +/- 1-2% in actual election results compared to his averaged pre-election polling. In other places such as SC, WI, and VA, he got a lot more as the undecideds went for him. The undecideds may determine how Obama finishes and right now, they are hearing him talk about Reverend Wright and their 20 year relationship.

by gomer on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:11:33 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

It's also the "Other" contingent - people who say they'll vote for someone else. This is likely Edwards supporters who most likely will end up voting for Hillary.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:16:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

Hillary will not win NC. The early voting has Obama up way ahead and it is 14% of the vote. SUSA has not gotten any of the southern states correct yet.

by Spanky on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:28:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

SUSA got the VA and MD pretty close, not exactly, but close...all considering.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:39:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

VA is the only state that SUSA got Obama's level of support right. MD was close. In every deep south state, Obama has been severely undercounted.

I'm guessing SUSA has corrected for this but I still think they'll be off by 10 points or so. Time will tell.

by alex100 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:55:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Remember TX? (none / 0)

That might have been an over-correction, but I for one am not too confident in Obama's chances. Especially in Indiana, as the new voter ID law will sink turnout among his 'base' of the poor (he won PA voters making <$15,000/yr by 6%) and African-Americans.

by MILiberal on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 11:49:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (2.00 / 1)

They've been pretty close in the most recent southern states - Virginia, Maryland and Texas.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 12:06:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

John Kerry was up in early voting in North Carolina in 2004.

I don't think Clinton will win that state. Before Pennsylvania, it was looking like a huge Obama blowout, veering towards over 25%. If he doesn't offset Hillary's popular vote gain from Pennsylvania (210,000), he's in trouble.

2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.

by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (2.00 / 1)

SUSA reports only 2% of the electorate has only voted.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 11:59:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (2.00 / 1)

GO HILL GIRL!!!

by Scope441 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:42:47 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

yes SHE can!!

by Scope441 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:43:28 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

Hillary's trending up!

by environmentally blue on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:54:28 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

SUSA has been horrible this cycle in Southern States, they were off by Double digits in virtually every state.

by Socraticsilence on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 10:20:19 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (2.00 / 1)

My prediction is that she'll pull this off....

by nikkid on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 10:35:16 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

I hope AAs realize that Obama's career depends on them voting Hillary and then holding her feet to the fire for that VP slot.

You have seen what the press will do to him this cycle.

by DTaylor on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 10:42:55 PM EST

Re: You can't have it both ways. (none / 0)

It just doesn't work like that.

Ask VP Quayle.

by DTaylor on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:08:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If Clinton Wins NC - (none / 0)

The nomination is over.

by johnnygunn on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 10:44:23 PM EST

Re: If Clinton Wins NC - (none / 0)

Yeah, but you got to admit, the chances of Clinton winning NC is infinitesimal. She will have to win up to 70% of the white vote. She won 63% of the white vote in PA and 70% in Mississippi, but North Carolina is a completely different state. Is it possible? Sure, but you're asking a whole lot.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 11:09:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If Clinton Wins NC - (none / 0)

I'm not saying she will -
But if she does, then it is over for Obama - right?

by johnnygunn on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 11:12:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If Clinton Wins NC - (none / 0)

I don't think so. I want Clinton as our President, and I still have reservations about Obama, but I preached that Clinton should run this primary through, and I think it is only fair for Obama to do the same. He could still win the nomination without NC. Unlikely? Maybe, but certainly possible. The interesting thing about your scenario is what the media will say. The narrative will not be Obama can't shake Clinton, but Obama is a disaster for the general election. It would be a sad end to an amazing campaign. But, we're getting ahead of ourselves now. I still believe Obama wins NC by double digits and unless I see other polls showing this race in single digits, I hold firm on that prediction.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 11:22:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If Clinton Wins NC - (none / 0)

If this were to happen, which I'm sure it will not, but if it did, it would mean either:

(a) She won the "everyone else" vote by something like 70-80%.

(b) She cut Obama's lead with AA community by 10-20%.

So, yeah, if either of those things happened I think you would see a superdelegate implosion. But it's very very unlikely.

Obama should carry NC by double digits for sure.

by bobbank on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 11:35:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

I would like to see Hillary try to make some inroads into that AA vote by focusing on the long and distinguished record that both Clintons have, working on behalf of that community.

Cutting that lead by 5-10% would send a really strong message.

Although.. the cold, hard math of the situation is probably that she gets more bang for the buck by trying to solidify her lead with everyone else.

by bobbank on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 11:33:56 PM EST

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

Obama sold out the Clinton's unprecedented level of inclusiveness and promotion of AA's. It's all forgotten.

2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.

by BPK80 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:13:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

Hillary needs to address the AA issue at some point and playing to AAs in NC would be a wise move.

Even if she doesn't gain a single vote.

by DTaylor on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:11:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Playing to African Americans (none / 0)

She's been doing this the whole campaign. No one gives her credit though. And, no, it hasn't won her a single vote.

- Speaking at the "State of teh Black Union" in New Orleans (AFTER Louisiana had voted, by the way, and taking time away from campaigning in Ohio and Texas, which she DESPERATELY needed at the time. Obama didn't go.)

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/23/o bama.sobu/index.html

- Speaking in Memphis on the 40th anniversary of MLK's assassination (AFTER Tennessee had voted, by the way, and taking time away from campaigning in Pennsylvania, which she also needed badly. Obama didn't go.)

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition /asection/la-na-campaign5apr05,1,3788824 .story

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 04:28:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA NC poll is up (none / 0)

The cross tabs seem to be dead on. What will be interesting is if the denouncing of Wright will decrease AA turnout in NC at all. I don't think AA's would switch to Hillary, but maybe just sit out? It's unlikely but there could be a small (3-5%) depression in turnout. I'll also be interested to see if white support goes up in the next poll because of Wright at all, but I'm wondering if she's hit the ceiling on that. Also, the Easley endorsement did not really play in this poll. There's alot of unknowns at play with polling before today in any state. I still think it will be Obama +7 or +8 at this point.

Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008

by zcflint05 on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 03:09:14 AM EST

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