2012

by DaveOinSF, Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:23:23 AM EST

I'm bored waiting until Tuesday.  I want to engage in some wild speculation.

Say McCain wins in November.  Who (other than Obama/Clinton) would be likely contenders in 2012?

Say the Democrat wins in November.  Who would be likely Republican contenders in 2012?

Assume, of course, that the denouement of the current primary does NOT actually result in the complete destruction of the Democratic Party as we know it.  Probably at least a 50/50 bet at this stage.

Democrats:

  1. Al Gore
  2. Phil Bredesen
  3. Jim Webb
  4. Brian Schweitzer
  5. Kathleen Sebelius

Republicans:

  1. Mike Huckabee
  2. Sarah Palin
  3. Charlie Crist
  4. Bobby Jindal
  5. Condoleeza Rice




Tags: 2012 election (all tags)

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Re: 2012 (none / 0)

Ted Strickland in 2012 if McCain wins


by rossinatl on Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:27:46 AM EST

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

No!!!  We need him here in Ohio!!!


by LordMike on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:25:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

John Edwards  He has a good following and is a handsome man which is a big plus.

Newt Gingrich  He can lay claim to the biggest GOP victory in recent years with the house take over.


by DTaylor on Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:29:24 AM EST

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

I'm thinking Edwards' ship has sailed.  I like him, but two unsuccessful runs is enough.


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:33:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

Newt Gingrich  He can lay claim to the biggest GOP victory in recent years with the house take over.

I don't mean to pick a fight here, but Newt Gingrich is the Hillary Clinton of the Republican Party -- someone liked by the base but radioactive to everyone else. Nominating Gingrich would be suicidal.


by RP McMurphy on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:21:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

Hillary liked by the base?  I guess it depends on whom you consider the base...


by LordMike on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:26:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

The base has been voting for HIllary.  What do you call us?


by LindaSFNM on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:24:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

half the base... (none / 0)

perhaps you mistakenly believed that you represent all of it.  there is a reason why we say hillary unites conservatives while she divides progressives.  it's a gift, i suppose...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:20:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

No, the "base" has been voting (and busting their butts) for Obama...


by LordMike on Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:22:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (2.00 / 1)

Jeremiah Wright/Mike Huckabee 2012


by DPW on Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:30:06 AM EST

Re: 2012 (2.00 / 1)

Just to be clear, I am hoping to see Wright and Huckabee TOGETHER on the ticket, not on opposing sides.


by DPW on Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:31:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (2.00 / 1)

If Sen. Clinton does not win  this year, there will be no woman nominated for at least twenty years.

If Sen. Obama loses this year, there will not be a person of color nominated for another twenty years.


by susie on Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:31:16 AM EST

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

Not to put a cramp your negativity, there, but I remember growing up in the late 80's and hearing time and again how no woman or black person would ever be elected to the Presidency in our lifetimes. Things change. All it takes is the right candidate - skin color and gender increasingly have next to nothing to do with it.


by TheSilverMonkey on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:05:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

that is so true.


by woodinville on Thu May 01, 2008 at 06:04:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Negativity? (none / 0)

Well, I remember growing up decades before you and, therefore, have experienced many years of American political life.

Politicians, both Rep. and Dem., want winners.  It's all about electability, not just of the candidate, but of down-ticket candidates as well.

Of course things change, and have changed each decade, and will continue to change.  But some people and areas change quicker than others.  The election of 2012 will depend on so much more than a person.  National and world situations will be very different from what we can even conceive  at present.

I hope a strong, forward-looking Democratic president can and will be elected in 2008 to turn our ship of state around, or at least start it in a more positive direction so that the election of 2012 will be a re-election to carry those policies further.


by susie on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:48:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree with you (2.00 / 1)

On Obama - if the reason he isn't nominated is b/c of Wright, then there is no way any AA will be nominated in the near future. There are no AA politicians around today that if you don't dig into their circle of associates, you will not find a pastor or family member that hasn't said or done anything controversial. This is the new standard for AA politicians.


by highgrade on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:05:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree with you (none / 0)

off base and really belittling the scale of comments made by wright. you're essentially saying he is the very norm of black church pastors. i don't think that's the case. and your distracting from the fact that BO tied himself very tightly to wright. if BO had not made wright a centerpiece of his early campaign this dog wouldn't have been barking so long. if wright had made only a single controversial comment this wouldn't still be an issue.


by swissffun on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:21:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

you're wrong... (none / 0)

wright is not only considered mainstream within the black church, he is considered mainstream by the mainline christian denominations, as well.  white people may not like to think about it, but america's past is damnable, and agreement on this used to be the reason that black voters tended to be democrats.  the emerging white consensus that god has blessed slavery and that black democrats must accept that actually sets us back hundreds of years.

and that's just among progressives.  i'd imagine conservative thinking takes us back further.  the belief that black democrats must be uncle toms, afaic, is just pathetic...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:39:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Colbert (2.00 / 1)


_____________
PUMA: Perverse Undemocratic McCain Adherents
by lizardbox on Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:31:33 AM EST

Re: Colbert (none / 0)

I second the nomination...


Congratulations Steny Hoyer! Our 2008 Chickenshit Leader Of The Year!
by RockvilleLiberal2 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:11:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

Webb would be great for either Hillary or Barack this time around.  I hope he gets picked as VP by one of them.


by AlexScott on Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:43:53 AM EST

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

As a VP Webb is a long shot. Dems can't afford to risk his senate seat.


Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.
by Obama Independent on Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:50:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

No risk... it would be appointed by Kaine for the next 4 years....


by LordMike on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:26:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

If we lose in Nov, it is Warner for 2012.


by Sandeep on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:11:33 AM EST

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

If he didn't run this year, what makes you think he'll run in 2012?


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:13:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

He did not run this year BECAUSE he wants to run in the next cycle, and thought he would stand a better chance if he hadn't lost to Hillary, who most assumed was a shoe in for the nomination.


by DreamsOfABlueNation on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:43:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

Governor Mike Bebee of AR
Governor Brad Henry of Oklahoma
Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio
Governor Phil Brendesen of TN
Senator-elect & Former Governor Mark Warner of VA

We have a powerful & impressive bench for 2012.


by labanman on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:13:09 AM EST

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

Forgot

Governor Bill Ritter of Colorado

While for the Republicans, one name will be a strong favorite among the GOP base.

A man named-  Fmr. Governor Jeb Bush


by labanman on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:16:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

Governor Mike Bebee of AR

Too old. Crotchety.

Governor Brad Henry of Oklahoma

Close, but a little stiff.

Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio

Boring. Lacks charisma.

Governor Phil Brendesen of TN

Not even close.

Senator-elect & Former Governor Mark Warner of VA

Accomplished, photogenic, well-liked, but a bit dry. Tim Kaine's a better politician.


by RP McMurphy on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:53:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

If John Kerry was able to win the nomination, every one of these guys & gals can do it.

No one's going to be perfect.

We've nominated two very boring guys in the "old" Gore in 00 & Kerry in '04.

At least we have a deep bench of Governors who all happen to be Highly Successful Red State Democratric Chief Executives.


by labanman on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:29:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

If John Kerry was able to win the nomination, every one of these guys & gals can do it.

John Kerry has a very appealing biography (see war hero) that compensated somewhat for his charisma deficit. Of the people you cited, to my mind, only Warner comes close.

No one's going to be perfect.

We've nominated two very boring guys in the "old" Gore in 00 & Kerry in '04.

Yeah, and they both lost. That's the problem with a lot of people in the Democratic Party; they're much too cerebral in evaluating candidates. If you like a candidate's healthcare plan, for instance, but that candidate isn't well-liked and has little chance of actually passing that legislation, then it doesn't do you a whole lot of good to nominate him/her.


by RP McMurphy on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:57:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (2.00 / 1)

Surely someone named Bush is available for 2012.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:13:11 AM EST

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

Mark Warner .

No questions asked.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:15:17 AM EST

Mark Warner (none / 0)

I read somewhere that Obama would probably not have run had Warner decided to run for the presidency, rather than the Senate.  I think he felt that he needed some Senate experience to improve his foreign policy experience credentials; as we enter an era where national security will either at least the second most important issue every November, we may not see a governor elected in sometime.  I doubt either Hillary or Obama runs again unless the loser in this nomination runs as the winner's vice president and that ticket wins the presidency.

As for the Republicans, I see Mitt Romney as the frontrunner.  He'll be six years removed from having flip-flopped on some major issues important to conservatives and he will have developed greater capital with the right-wing by 2012.


by Blazers Edge on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:16:31 AM EST

Re: Mark Warner (none / 0)

Romney will be McCain's Veep and will be the frontrunner for 2012 if McCain loses.

I can see Hillary and/or Obama running again depending on how this all plays out


by rossinatl on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:43:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

Democratic nominee: Brian Schweitzer by a mile. He's governor of a western state, he speaks Arabic, and most importantly of all, he's got "IT". What's "IT" you ask? "IT"'s the difference between John F Kennedy and John F Kerry, between Barack Obama and Micheal Dukakis, and between Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton. Warner, Gore, Bredesen, Webb, and Sebelius are all accomplished people, but none of them have "IT".

Republican nominee: Usually it's the guy next in line, so I'd say that's either Romney or Huckabee (probably Romney, which is just fine with me -- he's a guaranteed 'L'). Although, if McCain loses badly enough, we might see a real shakeup in the GOP.


by RP McMurphy on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:42:59 AM EST

Rice will never be the nominee (none / 0)

She was the Republican countermove to Hillary, and woman AND black - how convenient, way back in 2002 after Hillary won the Senate seat and the rumors were flying that she was posturing for an '08 run. Rice's problem is her career has been completely blown out of the water by Bush, who practically sank his entire party single handedly. The Repubs need a fresh start with new faces and a return to constitutionality before that party starts going anywhere again.


by TheSilverMonkey on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:09:08 AM EST

If we lose... (none / 0)

I hope that everybody, even the Clinton supporters, will agree that we don't want to see any of these ass-clowns come back for another try.  I'm all for Obama, but if Obama can't make it this time, I don't want to see him again.

And I've become disenchanted with Edwards.  I always thought him the best of the lot, but only because better candidates weren't available.

I would go with either Russ Finegold or Al Gore.  Either one of them will get out of Iraq, which I think we will still be in in 2012, if McCain wins.


by Dumbo on Thu May 01, 2008 at 06:24:16 AM EST

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

None of us can really speculate at this point. Gore unlikely. rice is a lesbian who co-habits with her partner. She won't want to be under such close scrutiny. Also after the 9/11 hearings she realy doesn't have a chance.


Jon Winkleman
by Jon Winkleman on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:02:06 AM EST

Re: 2012 (2.00 / 1)

Realistically, these are the people I see taking the plunge, not nessesairly the best people to run but the ones who will:

Pelosi (she has power on the brain)
Sebelius
Warner
Schweitzer
Clinton or Obama (if McCain wins the election, the one who isn't the nominee can come back and run with the very effective start up message: TOLD YOU SO)
Bayh
Maybe Webb
Maybe Napolitano, although I don't think she'd ever win

GOP
Pawlenty
Jindal
Romney
Huckabee
Crist
Jeb

And I think we might see the GOP try to nominate a woman, although I'm not sure who would fill that role. Condi wouldn't, as she is known to be fairly socially liberal and her lack of a marriage would raise questions in the base.


Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008
by zcflint05 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:34:56 AM EST

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

Chelsea Clinton or Jenna Bush


by emptythreatsfarm on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:24:25 AM EST

If BO wins in 2008 then Dems will need (none / 0)

a new candidate in 2012 as he will surely not win a second term.


by CoyoteCreek on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:37:46 AM EST

Re: 2012 (none / 0)

If BO wins in 2008 then Dems will need a new candidate in 2012 as he will surely not win a second term.

I can see Obama winning at least three terms...


by RP McMurphy on Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:14:36 PM EST


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