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Electoral College - Hillary +63; Obama -50

So I've updated Survey USA's Electoral College prediction based on updated results in 15 states.  The results:

Hillary Clinton 294
John McCain 231
Tie 13

John McCain 288
Barack Obama 238
Tie 12

Hillary within 4 points in North Carolina

Public Policy Polling has a North Carolina poll result out today which shows Obama leading Hillary Clinton 47-43 in North Carolina.  The poll was conducted March 3, prior to the Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont primaries.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/P PP_Release_030508.pdf

Double Bubble epilogue

Some news from the recount of Democratic Primary votes from decline-to-state voters in Los Angeles County who failed to fill in the bubble marked "Democratic" as the party whose primary they were voting in.

Castro Resigns

Just saw this on CNN. Fidel Castro resigns as president of Cuba.
Link at Granma

Turning California into a Swing State

Supporters of a 2008 Obama candidacy credit his ability to "change the map". No more traditional patterns of Red and Blue as we've seen since 1992, but an inversion of the electoral college from sea to shining sea. While there are plenty of blue states that Obama could lose were he the nominee (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts), the most devastating blow to his candidacy could come in California. Obama could win Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, Montana, Louisiana, North Carolina and Virginia and every Kerry state but California, and he would still lose the presidency. And against McCain, it's a very real possibility.

Washington sets a Record

Amidst all the news of Barack Obama's success this past weekend, a mantra that's been repeated again and again is the record-setting turnout seen all across the country.  Well, this past weekend, in Washington state, caucus goers there participated at a rate that put it at the top of the list of all the states having participated so far this year.

MyDD on the Rise

I saw this diary earlier today over at the Great Orange Satan. The general premise is that, since there is a higher percentage of Hillary-supportive contributors here, that this place is therefore terrible and no longer an acceptable place for the A-list bloggers to hang out. As evidence, the diarist and the commenters attempt to link the large loss in readership here over 2007 with the generally Hillary-positive environment.

A look at California Delegates

California will send 441 delegates to the Democratic National Convention.  370 will be determined by the primary election on Tuesday, of which 241 will be determined at the Congressional District Level.  As we saw in Nevada, whether a district has an even or odd number of delegates will count a lot towards whether the popular vote winner there actually will get a delegate advantage.

There are 53 Congressional Districts in California.  21 will send an odd number of delegates to the national convention - 2 CDs with 3 delegates and 19 with 5.  Any delegate who carries any of these CDs will automatically get a 1-delegate advantage.  However, it will be extremely difficult for either candidate to win by a sufficiently large amount to gain a 3-delegate advantage over the other.

The other 32 congressional districts all have an even number of delegates.  Unless whoever wins that district does so by a near landslide, whoever wins the district will not win an advantage in the number of delegates.  Of these 32 districts, six will send 6 delegates to the national convention and the rest will send 4.

Here's a look at all 53 districts in California and who I predict will come out ahead.



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